Don’t Take it Personally
A Black Swan is something thought not to exist, or having an impossible probability. Even after its appearance it is often incorrectly explained.
President Obama in his last throes of political life tried to insult Americans into voting for Hillary Clinton. He shouted from his bully pulpit that we are not voting for her because she is a woman. He screamed that it would be a great insult against him if black Americans did not support her as they supported him.
We have heard it all before. How deplorable we all are.
In 2008 you were not deplorable if you voted for a man (Obama) over Hillary in the primary. The last eight years under Obama have been less than stellar for the black community that put him into office twice. In his hometown of Chicago, there have been 3,000 shootings this year alone. Obama and Clinton forget that BLM and their paid rioters do not vote. The real residents of those tragic communities, afraid to let their children play out in front of their homes do.
Those are the people who fear that Obama’s lack of support for the thin blue line will cause them not to patrol their neighborhoods. Those are the people who watch Hillary hug the leaders of BLM and watched as the DNC glorified the mothers of thugs that left this earth too early doing the only thing they knew how to do, be a thug.
So, as I sat there and watched an angry Obama giving the Black Congressional Caucus a tongue lashing I could only wish that he had the same heated emotion towards confronting the terrorist threat that has washed up on our shores. For that he talks about statistical probability, drowning in your bathtub and lightning strikes; if he even gives it mention at all. Oh, let us not forget the existential threat from global warming.
No Soup for YOU!
However, where have we seen this before, and recently as well? I will remind you because I understand the short memory of the average American.
It was BREXIT.
Obama scolded the Brits, our oldest ally, for even thinking of leaving the European Union (EU). He wagged his finger and said that when it came to trade deals, Britain would be at the end of the line. The pollsters never gave the concept a chance and the financial talking heads forewarned of Britain’s immediate economic turmoil.
The BREXIT referendum passed to everyone’s surprise except for the Brits who cared deeply about their country’s identity, their future and the future of their children.
It meant Obama has no political juice (respect) on the world stage. Outside of the socialist run media, he is seen as an empty suit, especially by our enemies. Very unfortunate for us and the free world.
It meant that the pollsters do not know what they are talking about. Like every economic model they are extremely accurate at predicting the status quo, and miss every Black Swan, every market turn around. The cannot predict the unpredictable. This is a lesson to remember and one of the reasons why the polls you see in our presidential race should all be rolled on to short cardboard tubes and put to better use.
It meant that the financial talking heads were not betting with their heads but with their hearts. Great Britain never gave up their currency for a reason. They were one of two economic powerhouses in the EU. The EU needs them far more than GB needs the EU. It was as if you packed up your house, loaded up the truck with everything except your brother-in-law who has been sleeping on your couch for the past 20 years, eating your food and not paying his way. As you drive off leaving him behind he stands in the street wearing nothing but his unshaven face and his robe shouting, “you’re making a terrible mistake, you’ll see.”
Was that Scrambled or Over Easy?
Mostly it was egg on the face of Obama and the liberal media. How could the world deny him? Was there any hope for humanity left?
As they say, insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
When is a Swan a Bear?
A friend sent me a message yesterday. One that I did not think I would ever get. You see, my friend told me that she registered to vote. It left me speechless which does not happen all too often as you might imagine.
I sent her a emoji heart and an emoji thumbs up and wrote, “I’ve finally worn you down.”
I’ve been trying to get her involved and interested for 15 years. I would hear, “nope, I don’t want to get called for jury duty.”
“So you’re ducking one civic duty in order to hide from another?” would be my reply.
Some years ago she got called for jury duty. I laughed, “so now you have no reason not to register to vote.”
“MY VOTE DOESN’T MEAN ANYTHING. THEY ARE ALL ARE GOING TO DO WHAT THEY WANT TO, THEY’RE ALL THE SAME.”
When it comes to politics, my friend and I are polar opposites. I’m the political junkie; I am not sure she knows who her senators are, or who her governor is. She is part of a huge section of America completely disaffected and disgusted by what they see that they cannot fathom being part of it. They cannot fathom that their single vote can move a single local issue, let alone a nation. They feel that they are not part of the system and have no control over what goes on around them. But, you can poke the bear just so many times until the bear becomes… the bear.
She is the Black Swan. She is not the only one.
I will not try to explain their existence, but they exist all the same. They are not on the pollster’s radar. No one asks for his or her opinion. They are the outliers, and I imagine that their numbers are in the many 1,000’s. I hope and expect that they will cause many news reporters to shed tears on November 8th, and as deplorable as they may be, cause the average citizen to clench their fist in quiet victory.